The Democracy for the Citizens Party’s (DCP) victory in Ol Kalou by-election came as little surprise to many political observers.
However, the win was very definitive, with its candidate Kamau Ngotho garnering 35,440 votes against UDA’s Samuel Muchina’s 5,450, presenting a humbling margin of nearly 30,000 votes.
DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua in particular did not only do good campaigns but protected their votes and win. As alleged, even policeman had to undergo inspection by the public to ascertain they were not carrying anything related to election materials. Good enough.
This victory is always sweet because they DCP was fighting a government hell bent on winning the seat not only to send a powerful message that they are in charge, but used every trick in the book to influence election outcome, including free distribution of mattresses, filled-in gas cylinders, blankets, money, etc.
However, listening to Gachagua address his jubilant supporters during the victory celebrations, one could sense a renewed political confidence. If anything, the by-election has strengthened the perception that the political battle for the Mt Kenya region is far from settled.
The victory is particularly significant because DCP was taking on the ruling party bent on intimidations and use of power and influence. However, DCP should avoid reading too much into this victory. It is comparable to Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) winning in Homa-Bay county, or FORD-Kenya winning in Bongoma – results that would be expected, anyway.
Let DCP win in Homa-Bay County, Kilifi, Kwale, etc to show their political mettle.
This voting pattern and especially the win by DCP with such a wide margin offers some lesson.
One, President Ruto is not winning back the mountain anytime soon. The nearer 2027 will be, the wider the gap would likely widen.
The other lesson is that Deputy President Professor Kindiki has got NO command of the mountain. Gachagua has. Therefore, he is of no political value going forward.
Being that there is no election which has seen the amount of voter bribery like the one in Ol Kalau, this strengthens the fact that there is nothing that will influence the Mountain towards Ruto in 2027.
Now, with UDA dead and buried in Ol Kalou, leaders still walking with Ruto will fly away towards 2027 in order to secure their re-election. The few who may remain will do so on promise that after losing in the elections, they will be appointed to various positions of power. This is how Governors Ann Waiguru (Kirinyaga), Kimani Wamatangi (Kiambu), Irungu Kangata (Murang’a), etc left Raila’s Azimio towards 2022 elections. History will surely repeat itself.
If Ruto’s support from Murima continues to dwindle, he may need to build more political partnerships in Ukambani, Western Kenya, Nyanza or even in Coastal region as these would prove more rewarding.
Ruto should be more radical on this come 2027 and even give the DP position where he can reap more.
Such an approach would also echo former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s long-standing argument that Kenya’s leadership should increasingly reflect the country’s regional diversity with other communities to also get chance to serve.
The writer is a lecturer of Communication and Media at Maseno University
